ANALYSIS

EUR, AUD, USD, CAD Analysis for 25 June 2013

USD/CAD

The pair is currently trading near the resistance level of 1.0468 – the local minimum. The quotes are likely to consolidatebelow this level. On the four-hour chart we can see a flat upward channel forming, the price has reached its upper boundary and starts to drop. The economic statistics from the USA may catalyse the decline of quotes: experts expect that the volume of orders for durable goods, home price index and consumer confidence index in the USA will drop.       

Levels of support and resistance

The resistance levels are 1.0468, 1.0439, and 1.0360. The support level is the local maximum of 1.0525

Technical indicators

The signal line of the MACD indicator is going out of the histogram which, in its turn, is in the positive zone and thus forms a buy signal.    

Trading tips

Sell at the current price level with the target of 1.0360. If the price breaks down the next resistance level of 1.0439, the protective stop order should be placed in the secure zone.   

AUDUSD

AUDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart the line Tenkan-Sen is below Kijun-Sen and both of them are horizontal. The line Chinkou Span is below the price chart; the current cloud is descending. After the sharp fall the pair had rolled back to the level above the line Tenkan-Sen, but didn’t reach to Kijun-Sen. The red line and blue lines become the support level (0.9223) and resistance level (0.9351), respectively. 

AUDUSD, D1

Look at the chart timeframe D1.  Disposition of the lines Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen copies the four-hour chart. The line Chinkou Span is also under the price chart, current cloud is descending. Last week, the pair wasn’t able to consolidate above the level Kijun-Sen and kept on going down. The nearest resistance level is the line Kijun-Sen (0.9406). Estimated support level is one of the previous lows of the line Chinkou Span (0.9135).

Support levels: 0.9223, 0.9135.

Resistance levels: 0.9351 and 0.9406.

On the four-hour chart the further price movement will be defined by the breakdown of one of the levels: Tenkan-Sen or Kijun-Sen. The chart of the higher timeframe confirms continuation of the downtrend. We assume that the price will reach the three-year minimum at the level 0.9135.

EUR Analysis

The Unified European currency has reached the lower level of the descending channel. At the moment, on opening of Asian session the price has rebounded from the level of 1,3061and euro is traded at about 1,3130. It is probably that in the short term the euro will continue to go up. The nearest resistance level is 1,3200 which breakdown will open the way to 1,3300. It is recommended to open long positions from the level of 1,3115 with protective orders at about 1,2975 and the target of 1,3200. 

Relatively good data on the German IFO index supported the euro, which increased and reached to 105,9 points. However, some experts believe that the current exchange rate of the euro is overvalued relative to other major currencies, besides Euro Money Market rates grew and it is likely that at the ECB meeting on July 4 there will be discussed the current rate of the euro. Also it should be noted that bond yields for peripheral countries have grown. The data on balance of current accounts has showed that flight of capital occurs.  

Eventually, cash flow can change from negative to positive, which will have an additional pressure on the euro.

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